Currency value is determined through a demand and supply mechanism that occurs because of the needs of both parties, buyers and sellers. Of course, when discussing the value of a country's currency, it is very complex because we will be dealing directly with all factors, aspects, elements, and economic variables. In the context of forex trading, one side of a currency is goods and the other side is a means of payment, so we can make a simple illustration of how the value of this currency is formed.
A simple example is how the price of citrus fruits in the market. Initially, the orange traders got the price from the orange farmers, say Rp. 5,000 per kilogram. The orange traders then add a profit margin of Rp. 5,000 to the price, resulting in a selling price of Rp. 10,000 to consumers, and this price is accepted by the consumer. In this condition there is a balance between oranges and prices.
In one condition, there was an increase in demand for oranges, which made their existence rare, and farmers and traders took advantage of this to raise the price to IDR 12,000 per kilogram, and buyers agreed to accept because they needed it. Yield production was also increased, until at one point, demand began to decrease, but the supply of oranges on the side of farmers and traders was still abundant. Profit margins were also reduced to stimulate purchases, and the price of oranges fell below IDR 12,000.
The currency exchange rate is an index that describes the number of units of a country's currency that can be exchanged for another country's currency. For example, if the exchange rate of the US dollar against the rupiah is 15,000, this means that one dollar can be exchanged for 15,000 rupiah. Currency exchange rates determine how much a country's currency is worth compared to other countries, and also affect the prices of goods and services traded between countries.
The process of determining currency exchange rates is influenced by several interacting factors, such as interest rates, international trade, inflation rates, and political and economic stability. For example, if a country has a high interest rate, there will be a greater demand for that country's currency, so the exchange rate will increase. On the other hand, if the country is experiencing a political or economic crisis, there will be a tendency for investors to stay away, so that the currency exchange rate will fall.
This also applies to international trade, where a country that has a trade surplus will have a stronger currency exchange rate than a country that has a trade deficit. The inflation rate also affects currency exchange rates, where if a country's inflation rate is high, there will be a tendency for that country's currency to weaken. Thus, the process of determining currency exchange rates is very complex and is influenced by various interacting and changing factors. Therefore, central banks and governments often intervene to influence currency exchange rates and ensure the country's economic stability.
Places for determining currency exchange rates can be found at several financial institutions, such as the Foreign Exchange Market (Forex Market), Futures Exchanges, and Central Banks. For example, the Foreign Exchange Market (Forex Market) is the largest market in the world where currencies are traded and currency exchange rates are determined. On the other hand, the Futures Exchange also facilitates currency trading with an orderly and transparent system. The Central Bank also plays an important role in determining currency exchange rates, where the central bank has a monetary policy that can affect currency exchange rates. For example, the central bank can sell or buy currency to influence currency exchange rates and ensure the stability of the country's economy.
The mechanism for setting currency prices is almost the same as the mechanism for pricing oranges in the story above, only from the demand and supply side it is certainly more complex because it involves many factors, aspects, elements and economic variables, and the determination is of course collectively related to all of the above. For example, exports and imports that require other countries' currencies as a means of payment, the influence of incoming and outgoing foreign capital, inflation rates, foreign exchange reserves, public savings in banks, and other things that have a direct or indirect effect.
Because the determination and formation of the value of foreign currency occurs due to market mechanisms, then of course it also occurs in the market, namely a collection of sellers and buyers who come with their own interests.
Under current market economic conditions, business actors and economic groups conduct transactions between countries based on exchange rates. Exchange rates are influenced by many economic and financial factors in the country and have their own characteristics that users should pay attention to when trading. The exchange rate is also known as the foreign exchange rate i.e. as the rate at which one currency can be converted to another, the exchange rate between two currencies is the number of units of currency needed to buy one unit of foreign currency.
This exchange rate is established on the basis of supply and demand for foreign currency under State regulations, and is determined by the State Bank. In the banking and financial industry, exchange rates reflect the relationship between the values of two countries' currencies.
Exchange rates are seen as a special kind of price, the value of money, not the value of goods.
The first currency is understood as the base currency, the second currency is called the quote currency. In the exchange rate example above, USD is the base currency and IDR is the quote currency. The exchange rate is also considered as a comparison of the country's currency according to certain standards. Under the gold standard, the currency in circulation for business operations was gold coins and paper and exchanged for gold based on the gold content. Therefore, the exchange rate can be understood as a comparative relationship between the gold coins of the two countries.
In the current government printed paper money is no longer used, so gold parity is no longer the basis for forming exchange rates. Thus, a comparison of different currencies is carried out in the form of comparing the purchase rates of the two currencies.
How to classify exchange rates
For today's foreign exchange market, there are many types of exchange rates. After memorizing the concept of what the exchange rate is, now let's look at how to divide the exchange rate.
Based on the exchange rate
Based on the exchange rate can be divided into 2 types:
The Real Exchange Rate is the rate of inflation and purchasing power in a currency pair reflecting the prices of correlated goods, which are sold abroad and consumed domestically. This figure represents the country's international competitiveness.
Nominal exchange rate is the value of a currency at current prices, excluding the effects of inflation
Based on the foreign exchange transfer method
Based on the concept of foreign exchange transfers, we can divide them into 2 types:
Letter exchange rates
The exchange rate is the difference in value that is usually listed at the bank. That's the exchange rate for currency exchange. The exchange rate is the difference in the base value to determine other exchange rates
Based on forex trading time
It can be divided into 2 types as follows:
The buying rate is the bank's exchange rate for buying foreign currency
Selling Rate is the difference in selling value of foreign currencies sold by banks
Based on the payment term
Based on maturity divided into:
Forward exchange rate Is the exchange rate calculated and agreed upon by the credit institution but must be within the specified range of the current Bank Negara forward exchange rate at the time of signing the contract.
The spot rate is the rate quoted by the credit institution at the time of the transaction or agreed upon by the two parties, at which the rate determined by the State bank must be ascertained. Payment between the parties must be made within the next two working days, after the date of the commitment to buy or sell
Based on the object to determine the exchange rate
Based on the object of determining the exchange rate and conceptual information "What is the exchange rate" we can divide it into:
The market rate is the exchange rate formed based on the relationship between supply and demand in the foreign exchange market.
The official exchange rate is the exchange rate determined by the country's central bank. On the basis of this exchange rate, commercial banks and credit institutions will set foreign exchange rates for spots, terms and swaps.
In addition, there are 2 types of exchange rates that you should pay attention to, including:
Bilateral exchange rates: Bilateral exchange rates are the price of one country's currency relative to another country and do not refer to inflation between the two countries. If NEER > 1 then the currency depreciates for all other currencies, if NEER < 1 then the currency appreciates against all other currencies.
Effective exchange rate: The effective exchange rate (NEER–Nominal Effective Exchange rate) is also known as the multilateral nominal effective exchange rate. Knowing the exchange rate, we can understand the effective exchange rate as the average of one currency relative to another
The nature of the exchange rate is the price of one unit of currency and depends on the supply and demand for that currency in the market, so the exchange rate will change if supply and demand change. There are many different methods of determining exchange rates depending on business objectives, developments in money markets and markets for goods and services in the world.
Determining exchange rates based on gold parity is a method of comparing the gold content between two currencies.
Determining the exchange rate on the basis of purchasing power parity (Purchasing Power Parity) is This method is based on the comparison of purchasing power between two currencies, used to compare prices of goods and services, establish import and export business project methods and carry out customs activities.
Factors affecting the exchange rate
Now that you know how to determine foreign exchange rates, let's look at the factors that affect exchange rates.
Commercial elements
There are two main aspects as follows:
Situation of economic growth i.e. When the price growth rate of export products is higher than the growth rate of imported products, the trade exchange rate increases, which leads to an increase in the value of the domestic currency and a decrease in the exchange rate. Conversely, the import growth rate is higher than the export growth rate, the trade balance decreases, causing the exchange rate to rise.
Balance of Payments i.e. If the balance of payments is high, the foreign currency will increase and the domestic currency will decrease, causing the exchange rate to rise.
Inflation factor
Domestic inflation is one of the important factors affecting international trade activities and directly affects the supply and demand for foreign currencies and changes exchange rates. This is also a factor to answer the question what factors affect the exchange rate?.
Example :
If somewhere domestic has a higher inflation rate than a foreign country (US). At that time, Indian consumers will tend to choose American goods because the cost of goods will be cheaper and the market will increase imports of US goods, which will increase the demand for foreign currency (US dollars). In the US, people will limit the use of goods from India because high prices and reduced imports reduce the supply of foreign currency (US dollars). With a lower domestic inflation rate than abroad, the exchange rate will decrease and the value of the domestic currency will increase.
Income factor
If you know the exchange rate, it can be said that the income of each country is also a significant factor affecting the exchange rate.
The immediate effect is that if the country's income increases, people will tend to want to use more imported goods, thereby increasing the demand for foreign currency, causing the exchange rate to rise.
The indirect impact is high income, people will increase domestic spending, causing a high inflation rate, causing the exchange rate to rise.
Conversely, when a country experiences a decrease in income, the demand for foreign currency will decrease, causing a decrease in the exchange rate
brand name factor with interest
Interest rates have a partial influence on securities investment activities abroad, which in turn directly affect exchange rates.
Contoh:When country A has a lower interest rate than a foreign country like China. Then investors in country A will tend to invest in the Chinese market or save their savings in the foreign bank. This will help them earn bigger profits than investing in the domestic market. At that time, China's foreign currency will increase and country A's foreign currency supply will decrease. When domestic interest rates are higher than foreign ones, domestic finance will be very attractive, and the exchange rate will decrease while the value of the domestic currency will increase.
The impact of the exchange rate on the economy
What is the impact of exchange rates in today's market economy? This is a big question, but there is an answer. Let's look at the impact and role of exchange rates or foreign currency exchange rates in today's economy.
The exchange rate affects imports and exports: If the domestic currency depreciates (the exchange rate increases), the price of that country's exports will be cheaper, so the competitiveness of goods in international markets will increase. When the exchange rate increases, the economy will acquire more foreign currency, thereby helping to improve the international balance of trade and balance of payments.
The effect of the exchange rate on business: For large enterprises, the influence of the exchange rate on business is not small, directly affecting business profits. In particular, companies with loans denominated in USD will inevitably be affected when the USD/IDR exchange rate fluctuates, causing the loss of exchange rate differences due to re-evaluation of the principal balance in foreign currencies having balances in USD have to bear the exchange loss.
Exchange rates affect inflation and economic growth: When a country experiences inflation, the purchasing power of the domestic currency decreases, the exchange rate remains constant, and domestic goods and services are more expensive than those in foreign markets. . As a general rule, people in the country will use more foreign goods because cheap prices lead to increased imports, increased demand for foreign currency, and increased exchange rates. On the other hand, due to rising prices, foreign consumers will use less imported goods. The decline in export activities led to a decrease in the supply of foreign currency in the market, which caused the exchange rate to rise. Therefore, inflation affects the supply and demand for foreign currency in the direction of increasing the price of foreign currency, the cumulative effect of causing the exchange rate to rise more rapidly. In the currency market, inflation makes the currency depreciate, people will switch to holding more foreign assets, demand increases pushing currency exchange rates up. A country with a higher inflation rate, the country's domestic currency will depreciate relatively and the exchange rate will increase.
Many factors determine currency exchange rates, and all of them have to do with trade relations between two countries. The thing to remember is that these exchange rates are relative, and are expressed as a comparison of the currencies of two countries. These factors are also not in a particular order, like many aspects of economics, the relative importance of these factors is still the subject of much debate among economists.
1. Inflation Differentiation
As a general rule, a country with a consistently low rate of inflation will show its currency's value increasing, as its purchasing power increases relative to other currencies. Over the past half century, countries with low inflation have included Japan, Germany and Switzerland, while the United States and Canada have achieved low inflation as long as the countries mentioned earlier. Countries that have higher inflation will usually see a depreciation in their currency in relation to the currency of their trading partner. This is also usually accompanied by higher interest rates.
2. Differentiation of Interest Rates
Interest rates, inflation and currency values have a very high correlation. By setting interest rates, the central bank tries to regulate the effects of inflation and currency values, and changes in interest rates will affect inflation and currency values. Higher interest rates offer creditors in the economy a higher yield relative to other countries. Therefore, higher interest rates will attract foreign capital and cause the value of the currency to increase. The impact of higher interest rates is reduced if one country's inflation is higher than that of another, or if additional factors pull down the currency's value. And so is the opposite, whereby lower interest rates tend to depreciate the value of the currency.
3. Current Account Deficit
The current account is the balance of trade between a country and its trading partners, which reflects all payments between countries for goods, services, interest rates and dividends. A deficit in the current account indicates that a country buys more from abroad than it sells, and borrows capital from foreign sources to finance the deficit. In other words, the country needs more foreign currency than it receives from sales for exports, and supplies more of its own currency than the level of foreign demand for its products. Excessive levels of demand for foreign currency will lower a country's currency exchange rate until domestic goods and services are cheaper for foreign market participants, and foreign assets are not too expensive to generate sales for domestic interest.
4. Public Debt
The state will generate a large-scale deficit financing to finance public or community projects and government funding. Although such activity stimulates the domestic economy, countries with large public deficits and debts are less attractive to foreign investors. The reason? Large debts will fuel inflation, and if inflation rises, these debts will be repaid at a low exchange rate in the future.
In the worst case scenario, the government may print more money to pay off some of the debt, but this will increase the money supply which will inevitably increase inflation. Furthermore, if a government is unable to address a deficit through domestic efforts (such as selling bonds and increasing the money supply), then they must increase the amount of securities to sell to foreign market participants, thereby lowering the exchange rate. Finally, a large debt will cause anxiety to outsiders if they believe about the risk of defaulting on a country. For this reason, a country's debt rating (as provided by Moody's Investors and Fitch Ratings) is an important determinant of currency exchange rates.
5. Terms of Trade
A ratio that compares export prices to import prices, trade terms relating to the current country and the balance of payments. If the price of a country's exports increases more than it imports, it can be said that its terms of trade are improving. Improving terms of trade indicates a higher level of demand for that country's exports. This, in turn, will result in an increase in export earnings, which will provide an increase in the demand for the country's currency (and will increase the value of the currency). If the price of exports increases at a smaller level than imports, the value of the currency will decrease compared to its trading partners.
6. Political Stability and Economic Performance
Foreign investors will definitely look for stable countries with good economic performance where they will invest their money. A country with such positive attributes will attract investment funds from other countries that have a higher level of political and economic risk. Political turmoil, for example, can cause a loss of confidence in a currency and a shift of capital towards currencies from more stable countries.
The currency exchange rate will determine the real investment return. A depreciating currency will obviously reduce the purchasing power of the income and capital gains that come from any type of investment. Furthermore, currency exchange rates will affect other income factors such as interest rates, inflation and even capital gains from domestic securities. Currency exchange rates are indeed generated from a number of complex factors that can even make many economists still confused, investors must more or less understand how currency values and exchange rates play an important role in the level of investment they make.
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